ResBased research · Anamnesis Rising system · North Star release

RESBASEDPerception · Memory · Authority
Prospective evidence before outcomes

Freeze the prediction, preserve the cutoff, score the probability.

ResBased evaluation separates prediction identity, outcome identity, availability, settlement, scoring, and independent adjudication.

ProspectiveCalibrationAdjudication

Evaluation protocol

  1. 01
    Pre-event freezing
  2. 02
    Same-cutoff controls
  3. 03
    Availability timestamps
  4. 04
    Outcome settlement
  5. 05
    Deterministic scoring
  6. 06
    Independent adjudication

Measures and controls

Brier score

Squared error for probabilistic forecasts.

Log loss

Penalizes confident incorrect probabilities.

Calibration

Checks whether stated probabilities match observed frequencies.

Coverage and abstention

Reports when the system speaks and when it declines.

Block bootstrap

Estimates uncertainty while respecting grouped or serial dependence.

Superiority boundary

Hit rate, paper return, or closing-line value cannot substitute for probability accuracy. A superiority claim requires the frozen prospective protocol, sufficient sample, deterministic replay, and independent adjudication.